“More to prepare for later
The Baku trials, for some reason, took the Armenian society by surprise, although it was already clear many months ago that these scenes, these photos, these accusations would happen.
It was clear that many more things will happen in the near future.It was also clear the shock that Baku wants to throw into the Armenian society by deepening our internal chaos in order to provide a suitable environment for its further steps.
All this was completely clear, I myself not only publicly wrote about it months ago, but also discussed the necessary steps to prepare for this stage with various actors of the political and public sphere.
Instead of preparing, however, our public environment preferred to be satisfied with the fairy tale that they will be released in two months, or that they called from such and such capital of the world to release, etc., and so on. As always, a pleasant emptiness weighs heavily against a bitter and difficult pragmatism.
This episode is perhaps the most painful, but also highly offensive to our general public behavior. We drastically lack the culture of strategic, long-term thinking, we do not prepare for "later, much later" events, the horizon of our political expectations and planning is limited, a few weeks at most.
Of course, I do not doubt the sincerity of the authors of the statements and texts written in the background of the trial, but with them, as always, we record the consequences without trying to influence the course of things in advance (and in fact, a lot could have been done).
It is because of this limited planning horizon that we are equally unprepared for war or peace, for capture or for the release of captives. , or at least warn.
All this, however, is not enough to be called a systematic strategic thinking of the political and public elite. This year opened with waves of widespread social discontent around tax increases, transportation costs, declarations, etc.
The laws and regulations that led to these price increases were passed months and some years ago. And only from January 2025, complaints and manifestations of disobedience begin, because it was not even technically possible to inform tens of thousands of citizens about the expected changes, which will directly affect their lives.
In fact, it is possible to be prepared for many negative developments in advance and prevent them, to lead these developments in the desired direction for us, it is possible to generate positive processes, to turn the course of things so that we get out of the situation with benefit.
For this, it is necessary that the horizon of thinking and planning is long, so that we can think in advance, understand and decide what we will need in case of these and these developments, what possible bad options there are, and how we should prepare for each and every one. to the point.
For that, it is necessary to get out of the trap of primitive and myopic positivism and pragmatically calculate all the steps, with the longest cut.
All this is especially important in the context of preparing in advance for the upcoming extraordinary or regular elections, so that it does not happen again "we wanted it to be good, it happened as usual".
Now it is necessary to calculate further and prepare for further processes: prepare, prevent, take a positive course so that tomorrow's "surprise developments" will not be much worse." Vahe HovhannisyanAlternative projects group
