"Fact" daily writes:
The period of economic rise of Armenia due to external factors is ending and the economy is entering another phase.
Although economic activity is still at a somewhat high level, it has been declining for months.
All this is also reflected in the World Bank's report, which states that in August, Armenia's economic growth slowed down slightly on an annual basis, from 6.2% to 5.6%. If we analyze it by the months of the year, we will see that the rate of growth of RA economic activity has significantly slowed down in recent months compared to the high growth at the beginning of the year.
However, a certain acceleration of the growth rate was observed in September, which is mainly due to the acceleration of growth in services and industry.
Statistics show that in 2024 The contribution of trade and industry to the growth of January-September was 8.3 and 2.7 percentage points. The services and construction sectors also created conditions for growth, by 1.4 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively.
At the same time, let's note that, although the growth in the construction sector continues, it was 14.7% in September of this year, but it slowed down by 1.8 percentage points compared to August, and the growth in January-September was 15.9%: slowing by 0.3 percentage points.
True, the interest in housing construction is still maintained, but when 2025 from January 1, restrictions on income tax returns within the framework of mortgage loans will come into force, then it will have a negative impact on the growth of the construction industry.
As the analysis carried out by the "Luys" Foundation shows, the economic activity will further decrease in the last months of this year, because the acceleration of economic activity is already behind the mountains due to the acceleration of re-exports, particularly jewelry activities, since the last months of the previous year.
In certain months alone, a third of exports were re-exports of gold and diamonds from Russia to the United Arab Emirates and Hong Kong.
Many experts warned that the effect of high economic growth based on re-exports is deceptive and cannot provide long-term results, but no one listened to them. The important thing was to show good results.
And now, under the conditions of inhibition of jewelry activity, the growth rate of trade is gradually slowing down, which is reflected in the balance of trade.
In September, a 13.4% increase was registered in the trade sector, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the previous month's index.
Apparently, it will slow down even more from next month. Export growth also slowed down, making 38.9% in September of this year and falling by 26.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. These indicators once again show the large share of jewelry products in exports. The rate of import growth has also slowed significantly.
Growth in this sector in 2024 in September was 11.9%, being significantly lower than the indicators of both the beginning of the year and the previous month.
Such a reality is related to the decrease in re-export volumes of the same jewelry products on the one hand, and on the other hand, to the decrease in imports of other product groups or to the decrease in domestic demand.
It should also be taken into account that Armenia's economic problems may deepen, because the economy of Armenia is not ready for sudden shocks that may be caused by external economic factors.
For example, the economic changes taking place in the Russian market against the background of the ongoing war in Ukraine, severe sanctions against Russia, devaluation of the ruble, inflation and other circumstances can have a significant negative impact on the economy of Armenia.
It is no coincidence that Armenia's incomes from tourism and transfers have decreased significantly.
Both of these sectors are significantly interconnected with the flow of people and capital from Russia.
ARTHUR KARAPETIAN
