"Fact" daily writes:
Even before the elections held in Georgia on October 26, it was expected that they would have a decisive impact on the regional processes, especially since a very fragile situation has arisen in the South Caucasus. After all, "Georgian Dream" won the parliamentary elections for the fourth time since 2012, gaining more than 54 percent of the votes. And why was this election particularly important? The problem is that since the beginning of the Ukrainian war, Georgia managed to avoid being in the focus of the conflict between the interests of the West and Russia, in the event that many attempts were made to involve Georgia in the war against Russia. And no matter how much efforts were made by the West to bring Georgia completely under their control, in order to use it to attack Russia, those efforts were in vain as a result of the policy conducted by the Georgian authorities. At the same time, Georgia is not going to break ties with the West and Europe. The Georgian authorities declare that they see their country in the European integration system, within the framework of EU membership, but in a sovereign status, not a dependent one. In this case, favorable economic conditions have also opened up for Georgia, because that country, despite the threats of sanctions from the West, continues to cooperate economically both with Western partners and with Russia, recording significantly high economic growth. It is no secret that cooperation with its neighbor Russia brings huge economic benefits to Georgia. And if suddenly Georgia were to conduct an unbalanced policy and, for example, enter into a war against Russia, then the Georgian economy would receive a big blow, remaining dependent on help from the West. Therefore, the majority of Georgian voters gave their vote to the political team conducting a balanced policy. And, in fact, the pro-Western forces serving the political line of the former president Saakashvili, who before the elections were presenting that they would win by storming, were defeated. It is true that the head of the European Council called on the CEC of Georgia to investigate the violations of the parliamentary elections, but the investigation of these violations cannot have a significant role in the results of the elections, because "Georgian Dream" won with a significant margin. But the opposition parties do not agree with the registered results and their defeat, that's why they announced that they do not recognize the results of the elections and will not participate in the work of the newly elected parliament. The results of the elections do not recognize such opposition political forces, which either barely received 10 percent of the vote, or did not even receive that 10 percent. And the votes of the opposition forces made up only 37 percent. In other words, it is obvious that they have no chance. On the other hand, the Georgian "Western" opposition hopes that as a result of the great support of the West, they can change the weather in the country in another way, by inciting protests and disagreements. And the authorities assure that attempts to incite disagreements will receive a harsh response. But it should be kept in mind that the positions of the Georgian opposition may weaken significantly in the near future, especially when we consider that Donald Trump is likely to win the presidential elections in the United States in November. Trump's team has experience of cooperation with political forces with a more conservative political position, and liberal forces are working against him. In addition, the years of the latter's presidency showed that he focuses more on internal American problems, particularly the fight against illegal immigration, economic stimulation, etc., than on expanding the influence of the United States in the outside world. And the isolationist foreign policy of the USA will imply that the positions of the West in the South Caucasus will weaken, because Europe is not able to ensure the expansion of its influence without the active support of the USA. This, in turn, implies that Russia's position in the region will strengthen. Therefore, if we keep in mind that Georgia cooperates with Russia, and Azerbaijan has placed itself in the pro-Russian line, then this situation will be decisive in terms of Armenia's orientation. Since Turkey intends to establish itself in the South Caucasus by supporting Azerbaijan, Armenia's position can play a key role for Russia in terms of confronting Ankara's pan-Turkish plans.
ARTHUR KARAPETIAN
