The "Fact" daily writes: The issue of public debt at the Armenian world has become a topic of very serious discussions. The involvement of public debt can contribute to the development of the country's economy and infrastructure, to create conditions for the welfare of the population, but when the balance of state revenues and debt is becoming a dangerous manner. The governments of these countries are constantly increasing the volume of public debt in which the state is unable to involve incomplete income, and the balance in the budget is violated. In the long run, the increase in public debt may disrupt the country's macroeconomic stability. If the state has a great debt and is unable to pay the interest rate, then investors may lose confidence in the country's economy, which will lead to the fall of the national currency.
On the other hand, when the government accumulates a large debt, it begins to pay for newly published money, it creates conditions for the speed of hypergnor and infl. This is such a situation, such as in Venezuela and Zimbabwe.
In addition, the government is out of control, the government may have to use strictly tax or saving measures that can lead to an economic downturn.
The government can also pursue a policy of raising taxes and fees to increase budget revenues and send them to the debt service.
However, without the rapid growth of public debt, the situation is not ruled out that the state debt service will be impossible. For example, such a situation was created in Sri Lanka in 2022, when the necessary foreign exchange imports and $ 51 billion in foreign debt default was reported, as a result of which the island's state has faced its most serious crisis.
In the conditions of aggravation of public debt, it is possible to debate or reconstruct the current debt, but in that case the creditor can raise political and other requirements.
For example, when Pakistan tries to purchase loans from the International Monetary Fund, it is planned to be reduced to China with China.
As for Armenia, not only our public debt, but also their rapid growth. As of the end of December 2024, the entire state debt of Armenia, that is, the sum of domestic and foreign debt amounted to $ 12 billion 842 million.
Compared to the end of 2023, the total government debt increased by about $ 997 million or 8.4% compared to the end of 2023. In other words, the public debt is growing for about $ 1 billion in one year. And in the case of such pace of increasing the volume of debt, it is not ruled out that we will approach the $ 14 billion border this year.
The public is very sensitive to the increase in public debt, as it is due to the means of citizens that the debt will be paid and serviced. In these conditions, the Minister of Economy manipulates the public, noting that Armenia's foreign debt is not $ 12 billion, but 5 billion 962 million dollars.
This is an obvious "word" manipules aimed at public, not craving in the terms and relevant to numbers. After all, no specialist has never said that the foreign debt is $ 12 billion. All economists emphasize: 12 billion (actually 12.8) is the public debt.
And the public debt consists of the total and external debts, 6 billion 454 million dollars is Armenia's foreign debt - 6 billion 388 million dollars, domestic debt. In other words, in addition to the manipulation of his own small electorate, the Minister does not even present the number of foreign debt.
It is obvious that the foreign debt is much more than the $ 5 billion 962 million dollars mentioned by the minister. Maybe he has removed the debt of the Central Bank to reduce the debt to better and only submitted the government's debt.
It is possible. In the case of the authorities, the manipules are not new, as the economic officials used to decrease, but the debt increased, but its volume was reduced by a dram expression, as the dram was appreciated against the dollar.
Before the share of public debt increases at high speed, its positive economic effect is not felt. On the other hand, our country includes many large sums of money, especially after the Ukrainian war, but they do not have a long-term foreign year, and it is forced to take new debts.
The reason is that Armenia's economic activity is based on excellent reprints. And the government does not create favorable conditions for the capital concentration in the country, the accumulated capital leaks and leaves the country.
Even many Armenian businessmen prefer to invest in Dubai, such as buying property than in Armenia.
That is why, as a long-term resource base is not created to register budget revenues, the government has to rely on borrowing so that the state's financial obligations can be able to implement.
Arsen Sahakyan
