The "Fact" daily writes:
Armenia's economy faces a number of challenges, of which the priority is currently an excessive dependence on economic activity, external factors and geopolitical processes.
As a result of the war in Ukraine in 2022, favorable conditions were created to organize and increase the reproduction for Armenia. However, these valves are slightly closed.
And if the economic year of 2022 closed Armenia by 12.6% economic growth, in 2024 that pace has already reached 5.9 percent. The trend in the neutralization of positive effects of external factors last year has already become sharply significant.
For example, if the economic growth was higher in early 2024, recorded 7.9% in the first quarter, the index dropped only 3.7%. In November, the lowest growth of recent years, only 1.2%. According to experts, the sharp decline is due to the reduction of precious metals and stones, the share of which has been sharply reduced from 75% in the beginning of 2024 years.
As for the economic indicators of 2025, the tendency to reduce economic activity will become more visible. On the other hand, negative external factors may arise for Armenia during the year, as Armenia does not rely on its internal potential.
As a result of the talks, military operations in Ukraine may be suspended in the near future, which can follow Russia's graduation of sanctions on Russia.
Under these conditions, almost all re-export opportunities will be closed, the country's economy will return to its former state that it could hardly crawl. Not counting that new circumstances hindering exports from Armenia may also appear.
During the 2021 parliamentary elections, Nikol Pashinyan outlined that their goal is to provide a 7% economic growth annually. It is true that yesterday another manipulation was stopped in 2021-2026.
Meanwhile, the fact remains that this goal has become a reality since last year. And in the conditions where there is no emergency situation, such as the Coronavirus Eve. Even if it is possible to close the year by at least 5%, it will be considered quite a high rate for Armenia.
But it is noteworthy that the already worrying trends are noticeable in January. The Luys Foundation analyzed the socio-economic developments of the Armenian economy in January 2025. The main negative trends are removed in the analysis. Economic activity in January 2025 2024 Compared to January, it increased by 7.1%, which is lower than 3 percentage points last year.
At the same time, negative indicators were registered in terms of industry and foreign trade, which is quite worrying. If the decrease trends began in these two areas last year, this year becomes deeper. The foreign trade turnover between Armenia and other countries in January 2025 amounted to $ 1,377.3 million.
Compared to the comparable index of 2024, 40% decline were registered. According to the published data, imports in trade with partner countries in January exceeded exports by $ 412.9 million, which is a deep trend that shows the dependence of our economy from the outside world.
At the same time, imports in January 2025 also decreased by 33.5%, especially due to the previous year in smaller gold. In other words, gold and expensive metals should first be imported to be re-exported.
Exports decreased by 49.2% compared to the same month last year. The volume of industry decreased by 10.4% in January 2025 compared to January last year.
The decline in industry is expected to continue. Last year, due to the re-expulsion of gold, the factors in the industry have a certain "deformation" process.
It turns out why to give a boost to industry if it can be easily brought to raw materials, then re-export. But only such negative trends are enough for Armenia's economic growth to be hit from behind.
Arthur Karapetyan
