Azerbaijan is such an aggressive state that a military attack should be expected at any moment, although Aliyev's statement does not necessarily mean a prelude to war, the dean of the Faculty of Oriental Studies of YSU, Turkologist Ruben Melkonyan, mentioned this in a conversation with the President of Azerbaijan on January 7. to the interview, during which Ilham Aliyev was distinguished by unprecedented harsh rhetoric.
Ruben Melkonyan."To rule out aggressive steps, attacks and a small-scale war by Azerbaijan would be a great naivete. Azerbaijan is a threatening state, and it is possible to expect such threats from it at any time. And these are the mechanisms to prevent it At the moment, we have very weak. That is, our diplomacy to prevent it is zero, the army factor is weakened, and it remains red and not red drawn by other states. the lines sometimes announced by, for example, Iran."
During the interview, the dictator of Baku called Armenia a "fascist state" and a "threat" for the region, noted that "Armenia should not be a geographical barrier" between Turkey and Azerbaijan, and also announced that the so-called "Zangezur Corridor should and will be opened" ".
Analyzing Aliyev's statements, Turkologist Ruben Melkonyan reveals the key layers of his words, which are important for understanding the policies and future actions of both Azerbaijan and Turkey.
First of all, the Pan-Turkism program that Aliyev and his "big brother" Erdogan are actually trying to implement by opening the so-called "Zangezur Corridor" and creating a land connection between Azerbaijan and Turkey, or eliminating Armenia from the map altogether warned for years that the Pan-Turkism program is not at all an abstract phenomenon, it has always been the table book of Turkish leaders and has never left the agenda.
Ruben Melkonyan."Pan-Turkism continues to remain in Turkey's foreign policy, of course, sometimes disguised, but when opportunities allow, this pan-Turkism becomes an open policy."
Meanwhile, anti-Russian propagandists claimed that Pan-Turkism was just a legend invented by the Russians to scare Armenians and keep Armenia in Russia's "arms". According to Ruben Melkonyan, pan-Turkism is part of Turkey's official policy since 2015 is also de jure, bearing in mind the fact that Pan-Turkism is the ideology of the Nationalist Movement Party, which is part of the ruling bloc in Turkey. And Azerbaijan, as Turkey's junior partner, imitates Turkey's policy tendencies, pursuing its expansionist goals in the region.
Ruben Melkonyan."It should be noted that the Turkish and Azerbaijani policies are based on various provisions of open pan-Turkism, which in the case of Turkey sometimes have different wordings, in the case of Azerbaijan they have different wordings and different targets."
In this context, Aliyev's expression "Armenia should not be a geographical barrier" is also a clear manifestation of pan-Turkism. According to the Turkologist, this is a call for an open attack and threat against Armenia, because Armenia is not considered as a country with which it is alleged whether they want to establish peace, but as a "barrier", and the barrier is usually overcome or eliminated.
As for calling Armenia a "fascist state", this is, of course, a classic falsehood. It is surprising to hear the term "fascism" from the head of a state that glorifies old and new fascists, from Azerbaijanis who collaborated with the Nazis during World War II to Ramil Safarov and others. criminals, from a state where Armenian hatred, the policy of ethnic cleansing of Armenians is carried out at the state level. It is sad that this is at the highest level instead of fighting back, in Armenia they are afraid to "understand" why they call us "fascists". Meanwhile, the so-called "fascism" is the weakest point of both Hitler and Aliyev, and it was very easy to defeat the dictator of Baku in this field.
Ruben Melkonyan."It is the same as Hitler's criticism of fascism, and not being able to counter him in any way, that is, not being able to use Hitler's weakest, most vulnerable place. In today's case, the same thing happens during Ilham Aliyev's speeches and statements. You know, there are famous words that the thief the first to say, "catch the thief," the immoral is the first to criticize violations of morality, and now it has come to be that in fact a fascist is the first to shout, "condemn fascism," or to criticize fascism, being the very person who manifests and carries it."
Of course, the manipulation of fascism by Aliyev is not a new phenomenon, but this time it is presented with new packaging and emphasis this means open interference in the internal affairs of Armenia.
Ruben Melkonyan."In other words, he directs [Armenia's] authorities to take some steps, using his wording as if to "eliminate fascism", or he announces his attack, he makes an announcement that he does not rule out an attack on Armenia under the pretext of eliminating "fascism", because to destroy it means not by peaceful methods, but by brutal, harsh methods."
In general, Aliyev's speech should be evaluated not only as a threat of war, but also as a diplomatic noise, a certain political pressure, as a result of which the Armenian leadership made further concessions. The possibility of applying to the OSCE on the issue of dissolving the Minsk Group, which was Azerbaijan's long-standing wish.
Ruben Melkonyan."Actually, with one of his interviews, Ilham Aliyev got to the point that the "Dukhov" authorities of Armenia immediately went to another capitulation."
It is difficult to predict whether we should wait for Azerbaijan's attack in the near future. it depends on a number of military, domestic and geopolitical factors. In all cases, as we have seen, Aliyev announced long-term Azerbaijani-Turkish plans, which are not at all about peace. Meanwhile, the Armenian authorities continue to dull people's minds with empty promises about the coming "peace era". : Involuntarily you remember the words of Niccolò Machiavelli. "War cannot be avoided, it can only be postponed in favor of the enemy."
Aram Sargsyan
