The attack of Israel on Iran fully showed, to put it mildly, the imperfect character of Brix and the SCO, as well as the absence of strategic cohesion and consistency of interests between their members, - writes the doctor of political sciences, military historian Armen Ayvazyan on his Facebook page.
“Iran is a member of the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Full-fledged member countries BRICS 10: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South African Republic, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
The full-fledged SCO member countries are also 10: China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus.
These organizations, acting under the leadership of China and Russia, were considered by many analysts as a counterweight to military-economic alliances of large Western powers. I myself have never shared this point of view and never wrote either about BRICS or the SCO, since in a strategic perspective I consider them amorphous and blurry structures.
The attack of Israel on Iran fully showed, to put it mildly, the imperfect character of Brix and SCO, as well as the lack of strategic unity and consistency of interests between their members. In the same way as the joint aggression of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Israel against Artsakh and Armenia revealed the half and unreliable character of the CSTO. The no less effective resistance of Iran and its powerful response shots can force Russia and China to reconsider its actually neutral (essentially - treacherous) position and provide military assistance to its strategic ally.
Tehran does not need much - it is enough to put the Iranian army of 10–20 modern air defense systems (if necessary - along with calculations) in order to radically change the course of the war. Having lost several aircraft, neither Israeli, nor even the US Air Force (if they come into conflict) will not dare to approach Iran’s air borders, which will significantly weaken the effectiveness of their blows. Additionally, Russia and China could provide Iran with modern means of secure communication, replenish its stocks of long -range missiles, and most importantly, to provide relevant satellite intelligence data around the clock.
Whether Russia and China will be ready to provide Iran in the near future in the near future - it is not yet clear. However, in case of self -removal, they risk being an extremely unenviable situation, especially Russia, for which the weakening or collapse of Iran is fraught with extremely serious consequences. The greatest threat to it is the asymmetric strengthening of Turkey - both in the Transcaucasia and in Central Asia.
The sacrifice of Artsakh, in the framework of the “brilliant” foreign policy of Lavrov, has already turned into the fact that Azerbaijan is not shy about threatening Moscow, and Central Asian states strengthen military-economic relations with Turkey, increasingly occupying positions directly opposite to the Russian, and gradually leaving its zone of influence. The fall of Iran - and after him the inevitable collapse of Armenia - Russia will no longer be able to “digest” and itself risks in the near future to turn into a convenient next victim ...
P.S. China also has a lot on the map - oil flows from Iran, the activation of Uyghur separatism in Sinjiang under Turkish influence, weakening of positions in the Gulf countries, etc. However, unlike Russia, China will receive this blow a little later, since it is located further.
P.P.S. I do not intentionally consider India, since she has long maintained close relations with Israel in the confrontation of Pakistan. The geopolitical situation in Western Asia remains extremely complex and confusing ... ”․
