"Fact" daily writes:
One of the most significant events of 2024, if not the most significant, is considered to be the movement led by Bagrat Srbazan, when he came from Kirants in a few days, reached the capital, and tens of thousands of citizens took to the streets.
Summing up the political events of the past year, political scientist Beniamin Matevosyan thinks so in a conversation with "Past".
"According to many, the Bishop was close to the goal he spoke about during the May 9 rally, that is, political changes in Armenia. In the end, we did not get what was talked about on May 9, but there were several important records.
There was an assessment that the people will not like the streets, the authorities do whatever they want. are ready for action.
Secondly, after 2018, there was a myth that Nikol Pashinyan's legitimacy is also due to some public support. That myth collapsed, we saw that Nikol Pashinyan does not enjoy the support of the street.
In 2021, when the General Staff's announcement was made, Nikol Pashinyan held a counter rally, gathered people in the Republic Square, it is true, with the help of oligarchs, etc., but nevertheless, he tried to take some measure of public sentiments.
It is true that the movement did not reach its final goal, but we saw that the government does not have the resources to mobilize the public. This is an extremely important consideration.
As paradoxical as it may sound, starting from 2018 Nikol Pashinyan has only electoral legitimacy left, that is, the elections have not been falsified in a dirty way yet.
Previously, we had a huge machine of pre-election falsifications, which led to the fact that as of 2018, people had no other mechanism to influence political processes than going to the streets. These authorities are doing post-election fraud.
The most vivid example is what happened in Gyumri, which was a phenomenon outside political science and political norms.
The paradox is that the person who got less votes than the one who currently holds the position of mayor of Gyumri actually got more votes than the one appointed after that, but Pashinyan took this step as well.
Globally, the only support left is certain electoral legitimacy. I am not saying that the 680,000 votes received by Nikol Pashinyan during the 2021 elections are his "clean" votes.
I understand that it is not customary to say this in Armenia now, taking into account a number of political circumstances, but, for example, Araik Harutyunyan had a lot of money in Nikol Pashinyan's victory in 2021. There are also a number of other things.
In 2021, Pashinyan came to power on the basis of two promises: peace and return of loot. He did nothing, this man is left on the ruins of that legitimacy. It is another matter that until this moment the alternative that could capitalize on the bankruptcy of Pashinyan's legitimacy has not yet been formed," says Matevosyan.
As for 2024, our interlocutor notes: "During the year, we witnessed an interesting case, that the person who works as the president stated a clear deadline: we have four weeks to finalize and sign the text of the "Peace Treaty".
That was before COP29. The number one topic the authorities are talking about is the year 2024 is a lost year. than we were at the beginning of the year.
What was Aliyev's last interview about, it was something like this: "Dear ladies and gentlemen, it's true, formally we say that 15 of the 17 points of the agreement have been agreed, two points remain, but there are a bunch of demands that you have to fulfill, and then maybe we'll sign the Peace Treaty, maybe not."
And the series of these conditions is very large, starting with the transfer of three hundred thousand Azerbaijanis to Armenia, ending with the dissolution of the Minsk Group, the dissolution of the Armenian Army, the "Zangezur Corridor" and so on.
After the war in 2020, we should be committed to recovery.
We lost this year as well, we neither implemented the reconstruction of the army, nor diplomatically achieved the desired goal that the authorities presented, that is, if we give up the Russian security umbrella, we must find another umbrella with the help of which we will recover.
We didn't do that either. In the end, we found out that Erdogan is a mediator in the negotiations. We lost 2024 as a state.
In 2024, Armenia came one step closer to the fact that the Armenian leadership will sign a similar document that Samvel Shahramanyan signed in September 2023 on the dissolution of Artsakh statehood.
Did the authorities of Armenia take any steps in the past year regarding the return of Artsakh Armenians to their homeland, the return of captives to their homes?
"In 2024, the Armenian authorities have not lost any opportunity to once again recognize Artsakh as a part of Azerbaijan. All officials, Alen Simonya from Nikol Pashinyan and Vahagn Khachaturyan, regularly say that Artsakh is part of Azerbaijan.
Another recently said, "For 30 years, we were forced to love something that was not ours. I will answer with a little emotion and personal attitude about the return of Artsakh Armenians. I am from Artsakh."
I really want to go to Artsakh, to my grandfather's and grandmother's house, but I know one very simple thing: if there is no Armenia, we cannot talk about Artsakh.
Now the question of Armenia's existence is raised. Aliyev's last interview was about him trying to convince Tehran and Moscow: "dear, dear and adorable Iranians and Russians, we are not doing it against you, it is against the Syrians, France, We are doing it against the US and NATO."
This is said by the person who states in the West that Azerbaijan is a de facto member of NATO, or that the British special service views Azerbaijan as a tool to carry out operations against Iran and Russia.
That person, using the Russian media platform, tells the Russian political elite: if we do ethnic cleansing in Armenia, it is not against you. In these conditions, if I start talking about the return of Artsakh, etc., it will be self-deception.
We must also be honest with ourselves. The Republic of Armenia continues to exist thanks to certain inertia, including the inertia left over from the Soviet Union. it even refers to infrastructural systems, economic ties.
Now there is a certain political inertia regarding the Artsakh issue, it is true that at the same time there is especially the work of Dashnaktsutyun structures in the Diaspora, there is the work of individual individuals in different countries of the world.
The statement of the Swiss parliament was about that, there is this inertia that Artsakh is Armenian, that there is an Artsakh issue, that the Artsakh issue is not closed.
Among the Russian elite, there is an interesting wording that if the issue is closed for you, it is also closed for us, if it is not closed for you, let's talk.
There is that inertia, whether we will be able to use it or not, I don't know, moreover, I don't have the political leverage to control the situation, but I know one simple thing: if there is no Armenia, we cannot talk about the return to Artsakh or the Republic of Artsakh.
They are trying to destroy us and they can repeat what they did in Syria, I can physically see how they will try to do it and what our authorities will say in that case," says the political scientist.
The only way to save anything is a change of power? Let's imagine a situation where Andranik Kocharyan unites the CP, Nikol Pashinyan is elected Prime Minister.
Can you imagine what will happen to us after that? Formally, we can say that there was a change of power, the first person changed, ministers and others changed. We want to replace Nikolism.
That's why I say that a change of government is a necessary but not sufficient condition to slightly correct the situation. I don't know if it will be possible to do it in 2025 or not.
I know one thing: it will be an extremely difficult year, because the competence of these people is not enough to solve the problems. 2024 was a lost year for the Republic of Armenia. In fact, the main function of our statehood was to provide Nikol Pashinyan with state protection service, also at the expense of Armenia's state funds ensure his well-being.
I want to understand: we have lived for several thousand years, we have a state, we once had a state, we fought, fought wars, many people were killed, and the ultimate goal of this was to save our nation, taken separately, by some person? is Beniamin Matevosyan.
